There's a thoughtful analysis of Labour's current problems in this article by Madeleine Bunting from the Guardian.

I think it's particularly interesting to reflect on the thought that seismic shifts in working class voting behaviour can happen without being foreseen by the political left, and the reference to Thatcher's victory in 1979.

It strikes me that Labour - particularly under Brown - has become indistinguishable from Conservative policy.. Under such circumstances, why should the working class (or those on the left) support Labour? The only reasons left under New Labour are tribal ones, and even they are not strong when the government's agenda isn't interested in you.

I suppose the great unknown in all this however is how the financial crisis will pan out. That's a blog for another day, but it will interesting to see how it influences Brown's fortunes (conventional wisdom would dictate he's in more trouble than ever, as governments in office at times like this tend to lose the following election).